Or: Why BluRay will fail in five years or less.Most of us nerds have followed the HD-DVD vs. BluRay struggle since before the technologies even hit store shelves. Those of us with a vested interest picked a side, and the prudent among us chose to keep our wallets closed until one party had emerged as the clear victor.
Recently that victor was named as Sony's BluRay, when Toshiba, buried in revenue loss from its aggressive price-wars tactics, caved to its rival. A few personal acquaintances took this as a sign to pull out the credit cards and start the conversion from standard DVD to BluRay. I was blinded momentarily by lamentation for HD-DVD; my format of choice--mainly due to the selection available on that particular format. When the sorrow had passed, I realized that the things I wanted would eventually make their way to BluRay, and began planning to convert.
Then I had a bit of an epiphany. It was actually one of the slowest, most gradual epiphanies I've ever had, but it was an epiphany nonetheless: it makes no sense to convert, from a technological standpoint or a fiscal one. Let me explain.
BluRay, as a pure technological advancement, was a more versatile format than HD-DVD; with more storage and more widely varied uses. However, it is far from refined. Most of the touted capabilities have yet to be realized; with pretty much the whole slew of BluRay players that have been purchased to date already obsolete. The format was not ready for release, and consequently the early adopters will have an unpleasant jolt when they realize in a few months that their BluRay players can't even play the disks being released, due to firmware incompatibilities. Even the new model players that will be released in the next few months are lacking some of the key tech to fully access all of BluRay's possibilities. The technology isn't ready. It needs to go back in the oven and cook for a while.
BluRay is also expensive. It always was pricier than HD-DVD, and even now that HD-DVD has been crushed Sony continues to slap ridiculous price tags on players and disks. I did the math, and in order for me to convert to HD, I would have to lay out about $2000 for hardware (hdtv, BluRay player, random cables) and God only knows how much for disks (I have almost 200 DVDs, with about 100 more on my "wish list" that I would have to purchase in BluRay format) with BluRay movies running at an average of $26 each, $60-ish for tv seasons.
I realized, as I thought about these things, that I was just too cheap to put out all that money into a technology that was only half-baked, and on its way out even before it gets going.
Here's the thing; BluRay is the next step in the evolution of the DVD, but Sony is missing a crucial element--physical disks as a medium for entertainment are obsolete. Not almost; not becoming. Obsolete.
It's already happened with the music industry. CD sales have been in freefall for years now; making way for iTunes and the era of digital downloads. The DVD industry has, for the most part, turned a blind eye to the trend, and it was a reasonable action a couple years ago, but no longer. Internet speeds have reached the point where a standard-definition movie can be downloaded in an hour, and an HD movie in five. A gut reaction would be that five hours is still too long, but I disagree. Five hours is a meager time to wait for 4GB worth of HD movie, considering that the same size file would have taken a day or more a year or two ago. Consider also that internet speeds are continuously increasing, with the next generation of internet (and no it has nothing to do with wireless N protocol)
just around the corner. With this internet, HD downloads will be a matter of minutes to seconds. If an increasing number of people are willing to wait a few hours for HD downloads now, imagine how many would jump on board if they didn't even have to take the time to swing down to Best Buy, or have Amazon ship the latest movie release to them, but could, with a few clicks, have the movie on their HDTV; quickly, legally and in its full 1080p glory. Apple has already started to take a bite of this financial pie with its HD movie rentals, and they are in the right neighborhood, but on the wrong street.
While rentals have been a huge business, people would generally be far more inclined to put out the money for an HD download if they knew they were going to get to keep it. I know I would. I have already begun to accrue the movies I own on DVD in digital HD format, and I would much prefer this kind of system to having to purchase physical disks.
I analyzed the cost of putting together a system for downloading, storing and watching HD content, and it comes down to about half what a BluRay player would cost for hardware, and a fraction of the cost for the actual movies. It just makes more sense.
I honestly believe BluRay is on its way out, and has been since before it even hit the shelves. The wise would do well to heed this warning and keep their hands off BluRay.
Comments (9)
I love the post. I'm not sure I agree on the physical media being obsolete but thats because I don't fully understand how HD-Download media works. Is it compressed? I'm thinking purely in terms of a DVD being approximately 4.7Gb of data in its raw form. How are you getting an HD movie for only 4Gb of space. I haven't looked into what all you get when you download an HD-MovieN (just the movie and stereo sound, OR the Movie, 5.1 audio, special features, etc.) and how much hard drive space it takes up. Was just wondering if you could further edumacate me on this
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~DThe only point I really disagree with is the point of owning movies. I believe that people are getting tired of replacing their content every few years and would be more content to just pay some type of subscription rate or just the rental price per movie. Many people I know(including movie buffs) no longer care to own movies - instead opting to rent the movies when they desire to watch it. This only would become more mainstream if there was a solid rental option available with the titles they want - but it does seem to be moving this way.
Either way - bye bye Blu-Ray. :) (On one more note - if I do own a movie - I'd rather own a physical copy of it. It's easier to store and keep track of!)Interesting and informative to one who has not followed this whole "war". I think you're right about all of the above, though i do agree with DustDingo about a hard copy.
I don't think we should look at the decline of CD sales and assume the same thing is going to happen to DVDs (or Blu-Ray). The music industry is much different from the movie industry. Historically, young people are the music industry's core audience; they're the ones who buy or download the hottest albums. Older adults often have already developed their music tastes and they don't buy new stuff as often.
Movies have a much broader audience. People of all ages and backgrounds watch, rent, and buy movies. DVDs are so commonplace, you see them at checkout aisles right next to the candy so even people who aren't movie buffs might decide to buy a movie on a whim.
My point: While young, affluent audiences *might* pick up on downloaded movies pretty quick, I don't see that older and less priviliged audiences would be keen on going that direction. I mean, sure, movies can be downloaded faster, but not everyone has high-speed internet. Heck, there's still a lot of people who don't even have an internet connection in their house or, for that matter, hardly know how to use the internet. I'm not just talking about the elderly. I see people in their thirties that come in the library to use computers that have never used the internet before in their life. And then there are people like my dad that, though they can use the internet if they have to, they would really rather have as little to do with it as possible.
Granted, it is the young audience (especially males 18-35) that, in many ways, drives the technology market. But as the baby boomer population ages and become more set in its ways, they're going to want to be able to use hard copies of movies for some time, and I don't think the industry will be able to ignore that.
I still buy CDs.
really interesting. i think u should submit this for publishing (NYT, tech mags, and the like). i'm serious. i'm printing this out for my boss to read (hopefully he will). he's the head of WW distribution for dreamworks animation.
p.s. how cool that u live in texas. i miss my home state.
Like all formats to date, Blu-Ray is not the be-all-end-all video format. It's just the next step up in the ever-changing evolution of personal media. It's probably safe to say that all new formats are doomed to become obsolete as soon as they become established because someone will come along with something better. I agree that downloads will eventually replace most video purchases, but that won't happen until The Grid becomes established (whenever that happens). I, for one, won't pay full price for a digital copy because it's intangible, and it takes far too long to download. 5 hours is too long for me, and if I have to wait that long, I better be getting it for at least half the price of the physical copy. That said, I'm still buying SD DVDs due to the exorbitant price of Blu-Ray and its own evolving technology. Until The Grid arrives, or Blu-Ray becomes affordable, I'm content with an HDTV and a up-convert DVD player.
I still buy hard copies of CDs... although I do enjoy the ability to download a song that I might like by a group whose CD I would never buy
That would be awesome!
Derek thinks so too. 
I really am going to read the outline you sent, I just haven't had time yet, I am sorry
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